However, many pundits have often misplaced the emphasis from final polling results, often judging polls on whether they called the right candidate, as opposed to the point-margin by which polls erred. They might run to suggest that polling was terrible in , and slightly better in , even as the error more than doubled in Many overlook outcomes that even the imperfect polls indicate are notable likelihoods [v] and are liable to miss trends as they observably develop, for example largely failing to notice the tightening of the results in Arizona.
If this is all valid, then it paints a very bleak picture for the prospects of real understanding between the US population at large and the so-called political class.
Already facing fundamentally distinct perspectives and a population dispersed across the width of a continent, reliable and well-interpreted data is a key means of understanding the differences and similarities in opinions and conditions that exist in a large country.
Without that, misunderstanding will likely grow. Correction Nov. In times of uncertainty, good decisions demand good data. Please support our research with a financial contribution. It organizes the public into nine distinct groups, based on an analysis of their attitudes and values. Even in a polarized era, the survey reveals deep divisions in both partisan coalitions.
Use this tool to compare the groups on some key topics and their demographics. Pew Research Center now uses as the last birth year for Millennials in our work. President Michael Dimock explains why. About Pew Research Center Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world. It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research. Pew Research Center does not take policy positions.
It is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts. Compare that to Obama, cruising to reelection against the hapless Mitt Romney, fanned on by an adoring media and virtually no Republican opposition.
Yet Trump has slightly higher approval ratings than Obama. For another opinion, look at PredictIt where voters can put their money where their mouth is and actually bet on the electoral outcome. Trump is ahead of Biden by 50 to 44 cents. Finally remember that polls are a snapshot in time, with the only poll that matters being on Election Day. See Other Political Commentaries. See Other Commentaries by Brian C. Views expressed in this column are those of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports.
Comments about this content should be directed to the author or syndicate. Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information. We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising.
Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. She, of course, won the popular vote by a little bit more than two points.
That is, the polls were quite accurate. An average of the latest surveys from each of these pollsters in shows that Democrats make up the same six points more of voters than Republicans.
In other words, the polls have the same percentage of Republicans relative to Democrats as in , and yet the polls have Biden doing seven points better than Clinton did in the final polls.
When you dig a little deeper you see why Biden is doing better than Clinton. He's stronger among Democrats, Republicans and independents. It's not that the percentage they're making up in the polls is significantly different. Take a look at the latest Marist College poll, which happened to be the most accurate of the bunch in Biden has a point lead among Democrats, a three-point lead among independents and trails by 84 points among Republicans.
This is something we see consistently in the polls: Biden leads by a larger margin among Democrats than Trump does among Republicans, and he also carries independents.
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